Chuzz, in looking at 4Q 1997...Dell sequentially, and y-o-y, had a huge jump in revenue....and, additionally, looking at margins for 4Q '97...it actually went down sequentially (from 7.8% to 7.6%)..
Why do I bring this up? Because I think the acceleration in revenue in 4Q played its part in making the 4Q revenue growth drop look worse then it was (on a % basis)...It looks like in 4Q '97...Dell drove that revenue number (at some sacrifice for margins)...
So, I think the y-o-y comparisons (revenue) make this an even tougher quarter in some ways...
Let's look at this coming quarter...
If Dell can grow revenues 6% sequentially this quarter(and TM said that he is expecting mid-single digit)..given what TM and MD have called the best sales "pipeline" in many quarters, even years....AND an additional boost from Y2K spending......AND the additional kick-in-the-pants Dell now has from last quarter (+ adjustment of pricing model) AND the delays of the couple big contracts mentioned by TM and MD, I am thinking that 6% is not unrealistic here...
.06 x 5.17B (4th quarter revs) = 310m + 5.17B= 5.48B (1st quarter projection)
On a y-o-y basis, 5.48B would represent 47% revenue growth (y-o-y) vs. 1st quarter '98...
Why the jump? (From 38% y-o-y revenue growth in Q4 '98 to 47% y-o-y revenue growth in Q1 '99?)...because, sequentially, Dell grew revenues less than 5% from Q4 '98 to Q1 '99....
So this next quarter, IMO, Dell can be expected to get the revenue number back into 40%+ y-o-y growth range....I would think seeing this,,,,,that this would help alleviate the (some) concerns of those worried about the Dell "slowdown"..
Applying a .083 margin.....5.48B x .083= 455m net before taxes...
455m/2740m shares= 16.6 cents a share or 17 cents a share...
I reckon the analysts will put consensus at 16...so if Dell hits my listed targets...... Dell will be able to claim .01 above estimates, 47% revenue growth, and 49% earnings growth..EPS growth at 55%..
If Dell can hit the aforementioned numbers.."bullish" investor opinions about last quarter being just "a bump in the road" will be justified...
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