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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: Loring who wrote (25503)2/18/1999 2:04:00 PM
From: Alomex  Read Replies (3) of 42771
 

So what do think, Alomex? Have you read past posts?

I lurked for a few weeks before making my first post here.

Have you learned anything here that would excite you re this stock?

Not much. Novell has two big problems ahead of it. The first one is that WinNT, while in some aspects inferior, is free. Often companies use winNT as a more stable version of Win95/98. Once they buy the gray boxes with NT preinstalled it is easy to take the easy route and avoid installing Netware altogether. The second is called Unix/Linux. Think about it, the only alternative in sight to M$ is an operating system that makes Netware obsolete!

I think only NetDir has a future in the world of WinNT or Unix/Linux. People here try to derive comfort from the fact that Microsoft is not executing very well with Win2000. They forget, however, that this is standard operating procedure for Microsoft and every time they come ahead.

In the meantime the companies in question which should have been fast on their butts coming up with a new generation of products at much lower places sat complacently saying "there will always be room for an M$ competitor" or "we are technically superior, our product will win".

Does that mean Novell has no future? Not at all. If Apple is back anybody else can make it back too. So the question is at what price would you buy on the hope of a turnaround. And this is where I have the most problems. I think currently the share price already has a substantial turnaround premium built in, with no indication that Netware will live beyond the latest release.
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