Captain,
One source of mine (which has been reliable and not into wishful thinking) told me long ago that Vivus had its mind set on partnering with Astra. The purpose for picking Astra was because Astra was pleased with its ability to market MUSE thus far based on the limited countries they have launched in. Also, Astra is in need of finding new products to sell in its US market. Even with the Zeneca merger, the combined group still is looking to expand its line of products.
I believe that if the Astra-Zeneca merger did not occur then we would be having Astra marketing MUSE in the United States TODAY. Astra has always had a good relationship with Vivus and Vivus trusts its future with Astra more than anyone else. When the A-Z merger was announced, it gave less priority for Astra to close any deal with Vivus. In fact, it is possible (I don't know) that A-Z have an agreement not to proceed with any new deals until they are "officially" merged. In the mean time there is nothing Wilson can really do except perhaps look for another potential partner who may offer a better domestic partnering deal than what Vivus could get with Astra if they wait for all the Astra-Zeneca red tape to be completed.
I have been informed that Vivus would rather wait a little longer and sign up Astra-Zeneca than even take another offer that is about equal to what Astra has offered. It certainly would make more sense from a management point of view for Vivus to have to deal with only Astra and Janssen than to deal with even another third party.
IMO there really isn't any smoke for Wilson to blow except to allow another party who really wants to make MUSE work for them to offer a deal that would be significantly better than what Astra will have to offer after the merger.
The "other" third parties that have a vested interest in MUSE and the ED field include, UpJohn(Caverject), Lilly(ICOS drug in trials), Schwarz(Eddex), Schering-Plough(Vasomax), Alza(urological drugs but currently no ED drug since detailing MUSE), and Pfizer(Viagra).
Some interesting food for thought:
1)How well is sildenafil absorbed through the urethra? I would love to know the answer. Remember the company out of Malaysia that was advertising both aloprostadil and sildenafil on the internet for transurethral delivery? If sildenafil can be readily and effectively absorbed via the urethra then Pfizer can do well marketing both sildenafil and alprostidol alone or in combination for transurethral delivery. They can promote the intraurethral delivery of sildenafil for men who are at risk (since the required dose would be much lower than the oral route) or who have undesirable side effects or even fail on Viagra when ingested orally. I would be curious to know how a combination of a low dose of alprostadil and sildenafil would do when administered transurethrally.
2)Just from a valuation standpoint.....Vivus at $2 gives us a total market cap of less than $64M. Look at what Lilly poured into ICOs....they were willing to commit and even risk $75M just for the marketing rights on the ICOS drug including further payments if various milestones can be obtained. That is RISK! It also shows me that the ED market is looked upon seriously by the large pharmaceutical companies. They all know that globally the total ED pie is probably worth anywhere between 4 and 5 BILLION dollars. In the hands of good marketing, MUSE/Alibra should be able to capture 10% of this large market. This gives a small biotech company like Vivus a reasonable potential of gross product sales of $400 to $500M in about 2 years when the market starts to mature.
3)Any company that signs up to market MUSE domestically and already has an oral product available will be in a unique position as the only company offering and marketing both a local AND oral treatment for ED. Such a position would not require much more effort in terms of sales effort. The companies reps will be detailing their oral product anyways and detailing MUSE as part of an ED product line would only be a natural fit. In this sense I believe that currently Pfizer would be the best fit followed by Lilly if they get the ICOS product approved. Pfizer would be the best company to allow for a very quick increase in MUSE sales. The Lilly idea would be a good play for Lilly to use MUSE/Alibra to get their foot into the Ed door and then hopefuly get the ICOS drug approved and launched in 2 years.
Just some thoughts at a time when Vivus stock continues to trade at what I and many others here feel is an obscenely under valuated price considering the growing market and awareness for ED therapies. |
