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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: Mike from La. who wrote (37787)2/18/1999 5:29:00 PM
From: Douglas V. Fant  Read Replies (3) of 95453
 
Mike et al., Guys/gals there is another important indicator that you should be watching. And that is gold. Gold usually leads commodities both on the upside and downside. Since 1996 gold has been in a savage bear market losing 72% of its value over that time.

The only worse gold bear market was in 1980-82 when gold lost 82% of its value. Gold stocks also have dropped lockstep in four distinct downward cycles since 1996. After the fourth drop this summer gold rallied into the winter of 1998 and now is selling off again retesting the low.

But this is an important selloff. Look at the chart. The Gold Stocks Index is forming hopefully a reverse head and shoulders formation. We indeed over the next few weeks are testing that theory in the gold market.

If we survive the downward test, then we next need to break above the fall 1998 rally point for the gold stock index to confirm that an uptrend is in place and not just sideways motion.. Just a factor to watch as oil often follows gold....
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