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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN)

CIEN 200.29

+2.1%

Nov 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: Chris Lin who wrote (6493)	2/18/1999 5:57:00 PM
From: john dodson	Read Replies (3) of 12623

Re: Yet, AMAT is not only recovering, it is standing at its all time high now. How do you explain this? Quite easily actually. Two things. One AMAT's fundamentals are clearly improving drastically from where they were even 2 quarters ago. Capital expenditures on semi equips by corporations are up, and projections for the coming year are way up. There is a high degree of confidence that AMAT and the entire semi-equip industry is firmly planted in a recovering sector. This equates to good visibility. I believe Ciena just warned yet again about lack of visibility at today's cc. AMAT is much further along it's recovery path than is Ciena. Hell, Ciena could report a loss next quarter for all anyone knows (it may even be likely). Second thing, AMAT is a quality company and a quality stock. Ciena is neither at this point. It has the potential, sure. Before anyone accuses me of calling their baby ugly (yes I am a Ciena long), what I mean is that Ciena's pretty young, has a frightening lack of customer diversification, and is just beginning to claw its way back from it's first real down cycle. They've never proven that they can come back strong from severe down times. AMAT has practically written a book on it. None of these are insurmountable obstacles. Yet, it will take time to turnaround. That's all. AMAT and CIEN? No comparison whatsoever. -John

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