Sepracor-Looks very promising Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising

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To: BMcV who wrote (1766)	2/18/1999 8:04:00 PM
From: David Howe	Read Replies (1) of 10280

Congrats to everyone here! None of this surprises me, but of course I'm very pleased. I still contend that: 1. The earnings numbers are conservative. I've been using $14 per share for 2003 in my valuation models. I believe that to be conservative. I'm not as certain about the 2001 or 2002 earnings numbers. That's too short term and there are many variables. The 2003 number looks easier to hit. 2. 2003 earnings are just the tip of the iceberg. I like the 2nd inning out of 9 analogy. However, I think that even that under-represents the total potential of this company. They really are just getting started. Everyone keeps forgetting that $14 per share is just 1 blockbuster drug brought to market by SEPR on it's own. Sure, if there is a royalty / partnership (as is the current business plan with the exception of Xopenex) we are limited to 10 - 15% of the sales for that particular drug. I look at these royalty agreements as only a step toward the final goal. Sepracor themselves are starting to lean this direction as well. $14 per share in earnings in 2003 is fine. With the current business plan (mostly partnerships) we would see the earnings max out at around $40 per share in 2009. Looking beyond that business plan and realizing that they could bring a couple of major products to market by 2008 on their own you will see that the earnings potential is staggering. Why? Because there are so few shares out there. This is a small company in terms of the number of shares, thus the earnings have a very high $ per share impact. $14 is not staggering, $40 is not staggering, do the math and you'll see what I mean. With that said, there are things that could derail this story. They are unlikely, but possible. Be careful with your investments. Even as bullish as I am on SEPR, I don't have all of my eggs in one basket. This stock can and will have setbacks, however, it remains the best long term hold that I can find. None better. Long since 22, Dave

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