MDA - Market Direction Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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To: HairBall who wrote (6663)	2/18/1999 11:00:00 PM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Good evening all, Still a very dangerous market. After yesterday's close I almost became a screaming bear. Today's price action was almost necessary in terms of repairing some of the damage done to the intermediate trend. Because of this consolidation in the markets, everyday you seem to get conflicting messages from the avgs. Today is a good example. We saw strength in the DOW, NAZ, and S&P while the transports were down for the day. Yesterday was almost the exact opposite with only the transports gaining. We are also seeing strength in the utilites most likely because of the back-off in rates. The dollar is climbing breaking through (so far) a four month consolidation pattern. The fall in Japanese rates is positive for the dollar which is having a positive impact on the bond market. But yet today we also saw a rise for the VIX. Which is indicating the market could be setting itself up for a larger decline. And although the patterns on the avgs are becoming more apparent. Things are still a little "sticky" because of the daily divergences. One day's worth of gains are just not enough to indicate a trend reversal. But yet there are individual companies that are beginning to breakout nicely. Merck and Worldcom are just two examples. The high tech generals (CSCO DELL INTC) performed well today. But yet the nutz and airlines are still weak. With each day that passes the patterns become more apparent. In regards to the DOW, I believe the seven week battle between the bulls and the bears is close to a resolution. I honestly believe we are going to see some sort of breakout to the upside here. The key thing to watch will be whether or not you have broad market participation. If not, it could be a bear rally right before the big downdraft. Lets see what the end of the week might bring. Good luck trading. SO

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