Either a company has the management, product and market,
or it doesn't. If it has these three items then
over the long term it succeeds. GMGC, imho,
has all three of these attributes. In addition GMGC is
positioned in an exploding space and has extremely strong
partners (INTU/QWST/MSFT). It has a great business model.
It has an elite team. It has a compelling story. And
it's stock is cheap ... and getting cheaper ;>}
All of the above was true last month. It is still true
this month. Until I see one of these items change I see
no reason to get depressed and break out the Zoloft.
What gmgc DOESN'T have is a revenue history. Nor does
it have analyst coverage. So we're at the mercy of these
short-term forces.
Yes, short-term forces, such as converts. All
I can say is I that now have a profound respect for
the implications of this type of financing. It
is a new subject for me and boy am I learning something.
However, the converts are not forever. 1/2 have converted,
right? It looks likely that the rest have converted now
or very soon. Therefore this force is soon spent. It's
not like gmgc is now forever tarred by some infinite
power that perpetually keeps it in hock.
Another observation. Over the last six months 4 3/8 has
been the rock-bottom floor for the stock. We haven't penetrated
that floor. If we do so in volume next week I'd say we're
indeed in a new valuation realm. But that hasn't happened yet.
Anyway, I'll be darned if I get panicked into selling
into a six-month low for a company with all the positive
attributes of this one. Nope, no way, won't be rail-roaded.
Wouldn't be prudent, as George Bush use to say.
If the "convert theory" is true then we should see a bounce
next week. That would be nice. I think that is likelier
than breaking the 4 3/8 floor. We'll see ...
Sea Otter
|
