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Biotech / Medical : Zonagen (zona) - good buy?
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To: Hank who wrote (6210)2/19/1999 1:11:00 AM
From: Bruce Rosen  Read Replies (2) of 7041
 
Unfortunately, "experts" both long and short have written things on this thread as if they were absolutely certain, and later proved to be wrong. My basic point is that the lack of Mexican re-orders is not proof that there is no market for Vasomax. Especially not if S-P made no marketing effort.

I did not mean to imply that the data was being gathered to support the FDA application. Schering is aware of all the reports about Viagra. As I recall, a professional ophthalmologic organization warned against its vision side effects. There were reports of possible liver complications. Headaches and stomach upset each occurs in about eight percent of patients. We all know about the cardiac side effects and the interaction with nitrates. Perhaps there are effects which I have missed. If so, you can be certain that Schering is aware of them. Would not getting more information on Vasomax's affect regarding these indications be of benefit to Schering?

My understanding of the drug industry is that data is often gathered after approval of a drug by following some of those patients who are taking it. This may be the most efficient way for S-P to combine that goal with gathering other useful information. Perhaps they wanted to test the quality of the manufacturing process as well.

There are many plausible explanations for the way Vasomax sales to Mexico played out in 1998. The euphoria of some longs after the second quarter was unwarranted. I believe that a similar reaction now among shorts may prove to be the same. The fact is, nothing is yet certain regarding the future of Zonagen.
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