Microsoft Can Distribute Own Java Versions-Judge
If this really is true and Sun does not appeal the ruling, I think it will be a great money making machine for Microsoft.
The fact as we all know it is that Java is a tool used by Sun to sell more of its servers. While Java is a uniquely open technology and has become very popular among developers, the reality is that it continues not to be a practical technology for resolving real world enterprise problems. This is mainly due to its extremely poor performance both at memory as well as execution level. And this will ultimately be what, in my humble opinion of course, prevent it to become a real deployable technology, unless of course Sun and/or others improve its performance shortcomings dramatically. I personally can not see this happening any time soon (if ever), and hence from an investment point of view have become a bit concerned when it comes to investing in companies such as Oracle, and other software vendors that are big Java supporters. This does exclude Sun however, since as far as Sun is concerned Java is simply a tool used to push its thin client/server centric computing model to sell more of its servers. However companies such as Oracle that have become fully supportive of Java and are basing their entire business model on this technology will eventually suffer. Reason being Java does not - and will not - solve real life problems as native technologies (such as Windows, or UNIX specific) can solve.
Currently there is sort of a politically correct mentality in the software community which implies that in order to be politically correct one has to support Java and/or base its products on Java. IBM, Oracle and Sun are the main forces behind this and with the help of hundreds of other small and large vendors have created this political correctness mentality in the business community. In case of IBM one can say that they are sort of neutral and in fact open to change quickly once the reality of Java comes to surface. Sun itself does not care either since regardless of the technology used (whether it is Java or Microsoft's or anyone else's proprietary technology) its thin client/server centric computing model has prevailed and hence it will sell servers at an exponential rate till the end of world. However software vendors that are developing their products purely based on Java will ultimately suffer. Politically they can push their software to the industry, however when the day ends the buyers will realize not only they are not gaining anything but also are losing a great deal of productivity and efficiency. This in my opinion will eventually result in a 180-degree attitude reversal against products that are written in Java, and while they will continue to be 100% committed to Sun's thin client/server centric computing model, the execution of that model will be shifted away from Java. This shift will go toward native technologies that may not necessarily provide the ultimate portability and openness, but will provide the ultimate efficiency and productivity. And in my view Microsoft will have an upper hand in this area by all means. Sun will continue to sell its powerful servers as the backbone of the model. Companies such as Compaq and Dell will continue to sell servers used in the middle tier, and Microsoft and UNIX specific vendors will provide the technology to build the software that can be run in the most optimum and efficient manner within this environment.
Microsoft has come up with a technology that utilizes its native proprietary windows features in a very easy and friendly manner. This technology which they call Java is in fact a superset of the real Java as defined by Sun and the Java community! However it does the job of writing native windows applications easier than ever before.
From an investment point of view I believe MSFT shares provide a very attractive opportunity at these levels ($135-$145/shr). The negative notions of 1) IBM deploying and selling Liunex, 2) the justice department law suit, and 3) Dell's revenue short falling (which incidentally is due to Compaq and HP taking the market share away from it and not the idiotic notion of PC sales slowing down) may still result in further slide in MSFT shares. That in my view is a golden opportunity to buy MSFT shares for anyone who cares only about making money and not the philosophical and ideological issues with Microsoft.
Similarly and as I expected SUNW's recent slide to the low $90's also provides a great buying opportunity. I still think this slide may continue further down once the split actually takes place (perhaps another 10%-to the low $80's). However it will be short lived and any dip is a golden opportunity to buy more. Again regardless of what happens to Java Sun has succeeded to establish its new computing model as the only standard and hence will continue to enjoy a very healthy explosive growth in its hardware business.
Regards,
Addi Jamshidi |
