INDEX UPDATE
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Position of my short-term technicals:
DOW - MIDRANGE
SPX - MIDRANGE
OEX - MIDRANGE
HFX - MIDRANGE
NAZ - BORDERLINE OVERSOLD STILL
NDX - BORDERLINE OVERSOLD STILL
DOT - MIDRANGE
RUT - OVERSOLD STILL
DRG - CLASS 2 SELL
BKX - OVERBOUGHT
XAL - LOWER MIDRANGE
TRAN - LOWER MIDRANGE
Previously, I mentioned that the market could start selling off again early next week; however the short-term technicals for the overall market is still in the lower mid-range. This is puzzling me a bit since I would prefer that the overall market be in the upper midrange for a stronger selloff to begin. Also the DOW is only about 50-75 points away from the UPPER TINE of the MAIN DESCENDING PITCHFORK, which is implying that the DOW's upside is limited.
Im not turning bullish, but Im just not that confident with my timing and forcast of a stronger selloff to begin next week. Im not comfortable with a strong selloff starting next week in light of the relatively low short-term reading of the overall market, especially with the NAZ/RUT still in the oversold region. Is it possible that we will just continue to range trade more.
If the DOW gets to the 9350 range I will still initiate a small PUT position on individual stocks which are already in CLASS 1 SELL category, but will not yet initiate INDEX PUTs(DJX/OEX/SPX/NDX/RUT), since there may be more upside or flatness.
If a stronger selloff does not start by MON/TUE/WED, I would again caution short-term PUT positions in light of the
END-of-MONTH/WINDOW-DRESSING rally which could start at the end of next week.
On a subjective point of view, the DOW has traded 24 trading days straight in the 9100-9400 range. Can that continue much longer? What is interesting to note is that during that same 24 day period, the other major indexes did not remain flat. The NAZ,SPX ran up strongly but has given up a most of those gains to be in near where they started. The RUT has gone down and is significantly lower. So how does those significant moves in the NAZ,SPX,RUT during the same period fit into the equation of the DOW remaining flat? Heck, if I know.
Seeya
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