Some rudimentary TA observations....
IMO, today the end-of-week trading is critical as far as INKT's near term future is concerned. Why? Well, yesterday we had the lowest close for more than three months, and in fact it ended the day beneath its 200 DEMA; all this on the 2nd heaviest volume we've seen this month. During the past few months the low 50-ish area has held up. The first time, 12/08/98, the day started with a gap down open with an intraday low of 51 5/16- but this was a very bullish day because the chart signaled a trend reversal (bullish engulfing) according to candlestick theory and there was a nice rise thereafter. BTW, a reason it might have bounced at that low point is because that's where the lower bollinger band sat (20 session). We didn't revisit the low fifties again until the three trading session on 2/8, 2/9, and 2/10 when we hit intraday lows of 52 3/4, 52 1/16, and 52 5/16, respectively. We then had another mini-reversal, and again the candlesticks signaled a bullish engulfing pattern (that's the time I bought this time around, BTW- I traded this last year, though). Candlesticks don't tell me anything right now, unfortunately. But our intraday low of 52 1/8 again reinforced that region, but we also closed uncomfortably close to there at $53.
Although things are gloomy, I'm thinking INKT has a fighting chance here because of the support I mentioned and the fact that once again we've got the lower bollinger band in this area. The other TA indicators I glanced at didn't tell me much either, I'm afraid (although stochastics suggest a failed rally). Now, what happens if we break down? Traders would sell (I might, but I would like to see a close). But where would this bounce?
Well, speculating wildly, we got to this region via a long white candle that closed on 11/06/98 at 52 5/8, not coincidentally for where we are now. Some folks would hold that the mid-point and bottom of that candle provides some support, so that would be roughly around $49 and $44 1/2, respectively. That's one way to find support.
I am not an expert in these matters and I'm frequently wrong, no TA indicators are exceptionally reliable, I may have misapplied them, data could be inaccurate, I may have copied stuff wrong, might be typos, yadda yadda yadda. Is that enough CYA language? Hope so.
Anaxagoras |
