U.S.-Russian Kosovo Policy Dispute Threatens Bosnian Security
Summary:
The Kosovo crisis may have taken a turn for the worse when
Yeltsin warned NATO that Russia "will not let Kosovo be touched."
On February 17, President Boris Yeltsin kicked off an EU-Russia
summit in Moscow with a blunt warning to the United States and
NATO to stay out of Yugoslavia's troubled province of Kosovo.
NATO has largely shrugged off these threats, and appears to be
preparing to carry out its threats. However, the Kosovo dispute
is not happening in a vacuum, and is but one facet of the reborn
Russian-U.S. animosity. In preparing to pummel the Serbs into
submission, against Russian wishes, NATO planners should first
give a thought to the still delicate situation in neighboring
Bosnia. While Russia is not likely to enter into an open
military confrontation with NATO in Kosovo, it is highly
plausible that it may use Russian peacekeeping troops in Bosnia
as leverage against NATO strikes.
Analysis:
NATO's resolve to strike military targets in Serbia if a peace
accord is not reached by Saturday between the Serbian government
and ethnic-Albanian rebels threatens Russian interests in and
sympathy towards Serbia. During a press conference welcoming
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder to the Kremlin, Yeltsin said
he had made his views plain to U.S. President Bill Clinton in a
series of telephone calls and diplomatic notes. "I gave Clinton
my opinion in a letter, and by telephone, that (military action
against Belgrade) won't pass. We will not let Kosovo be
touched," Yeltsin said.
The Whitehouse has denied reports that Yeltsin had contacted
Clinton since their meeting at King Hussein's funeral last week.
Whether or not Yeltsin communicated his concern to Clinton is
immaterial, as it is now evident that NATO is leaning toward air
strikes against Serbia. U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen
announced that, in order to increase pressure on Belgrade to come
to terms, the U.S. has dispatched an extra 50 warplanes to Europe
to bolster the 260 warplanes NATO already has in the region.
Other evidence pointing to the imminence of air strikes is
inherent in the following facts. First, non-essential British
embassy staff is being withdrawn from Yugoslavia; and, second,
the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)
Verification mission to Kosovo announced on February 18 that
without an accord, or the prospect of one, the mission would
leave Kosovo.
NATO has largely shrugged off Yeltsin's comments, with most
analysts having interpreted them as a power ploy in Russian
internal politics. However, it is important to examine the
implications of his threats for the region and Europe,
particularly should Russia, responding to a NATO air strike,
attempt to intervene directly on behalf on Serbia. This
possibility may not be as far-fetched as it seems. Prior to last
year's NATO ultimatum to Belgrade, Russia had been accused of
arming the Serbs with anti-aircraft weapons. And, in an effort
to ward off such an intervention by NATO, Serbia had sought to
join formally the Russian federation.
Given this history of Serbian-Russian rapprochement, what is
Russia likely to do now to make good on its threats? Obviously,
Russia could supply Serbia more openly with anti-aircraft
equipment. While this would certainly have ramifications of its
own, it is not as overt as Russia's other options, of which the
most direct would be for the Russians to deploy aircraft and
anti-aircraft units against NATO aircraft. Such a foolhardy
gambit would risk an all-out war with NATO, and is therefore
extremely unlikely. Perhaps the most telling option available to
Russia would be for it to use its troops from nearby Bosnia as a
lever against NATO intervention.
One Russian airborne brigade is tasked with keeping the peace in
the Serb-inhabited sector of Bosnia abutting the Serbian border.
Curiously, this Russian unit comes under the operational control
of U.S. forces, which is also comprised of one Multinational
Scandinavian brigade and one U.S. Armored Cavalry regiment. In
Bosnia, both the U.S. and Russian troops share the goal of
implementing the Dayton Peace Accords. With this latest crisis in
Kosovo coming to a head, that common goal may cease abruptly to
exist. It is unlikely that Russian troops in Bosnia will openly
fire on U.S. peacekeepers in order to deter air strikes. However,
Russia may threaten the withdrawal of its troops from the Bosnian
peacekeeping force or it may elect to move them into Serbia
proper where military strikes are likely to occur. The former
maneuver would leave the Serbs in Bosnia feeling vulnerable once
again, with unforeseeable consequences for the maintenance of
peace in Bosnia. The latter would enable the Russians to claim
that NATO, should it launch air strikes into Serbia proper,
deliberately attacked Russian peacekeepers, thereby affording the
Russians a propaganda victory.
These would certainly be bold, but not entirely implausible,
moves by the Russians. Such moves might deter NATO strikes and
score points for Yeltsin not only in his power struggle in
Moscow, but also with the Serbian leadership. Therefore, while
NATO is beginning the countdown to strikes over Kosovo, it must
also keep an eye on Bosnia and the peacekeeping mission there.
We can only hope that none of the scenarios actually occur.
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