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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth

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To: yard_man who wrote (20502)2/19/1999 10:27:00 AM
From: Defrocked  Read Replies (1) of 86076
 
Yes, the Japanese should print more money as
their MS has grown at an anemic 3 to 4% rate
over the last two years. Not the prescription
needed for a deflationary economy.

But what I believe is much less important than
what AG and Rubin will be telling Miyazawa this
weekend. AG in particular has studied the mistakes
made in the 30's. Given he has apparently fostered
and accepted double digit MS growth in the US I'm
pretty sure he'll be telling Japan and the ECB it's
their turn to pour out the liquidity in order to
avoid deflation and any associated economic slowdown.
I thought the Economist article brought out that point
fairly well.

Oil is now giving back some of yesterday's gains. Not
unexpected IMO. But for my overall argument to hold up
commodities in general should "bottom out" over the
balance of Q1 and into Q2. A growing perception that
Japan has fixed bank balance sheets by April 1 and will
begin to grow will also confirm my premise. Unexpected
money growth in Japan, through direct governmental purchases
of debt on the market, should feed into real growth
temporarily before price adjustments remove the nominal
gains. FWIW. JM2c.
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