First, I'm no TA expert, so what you read is just one (of many) interpretations. This is not gospel here, but one person's opinion.
If you look at the Bollinger Bands, they're diverging, which typically means no big movement (up or down) in the Short Term. No clear indicator for the Long Term so I won't try to predict it.
Stochastics (which help forecast and are good for trending stocks) are at rock bottom (Short Term) and are headed south (Long Term). These have a way to go, which means that we could easily keep going down. More important (IMHO), the OBV and Money Flow is also degrading (fairly rapidly). Finally, the MACD has been heading south for quite some time (Short Term) and is now turning south (Long Term). Don't forget, since mid-Jan, the Volume has also been weak.
These are the indicators I've used in the past and have served me well, but there are many others.
I would tend to agree with you on the Long Term trend; if I project it out (as it appears today), we're going to test the 4-5 range. However, if it can hold 7-8, then I think that would be the bottom and it's up from there (not sure how long 'up' will take).
Given the nervousness of this market, anything could happen. Other 'tea leaf' readers are needed here.
Best of luck to all,
Nick |
