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Biotech / Medical : QDEL - Quidel more quick diagnosis

QDEL 28.14

+5.8%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Carlton G Glenn who wrote (393)	2/9/1997 10:09:00 AM
From: Robert Busse	of 1693

Carlton, I'm doing just the opposite- I'm selling other stuff and buying QDEL - I anticipate another good quarter to end the year w/ 8 cents for the 4th quarter and 18 cents for the year - well above both quarterly and annual estimates. With another good quarter, this stock should appreciate at least a point or two from current levels over the near term. To each his own, but I don't think now is the time to bail out. If you want to sell this stock, I would do so in the late April to late July range. During that period the stock will be basking in the glow of a strong 4th quarter and strong fy 97- after July 1997, the first quarter results may not be as strong as folks anticipate because the vast majority of investors in this stock don't realize it is quite seasonal - stronger earnings and revenues in the winter than summer due to strep a test mainly. Its business is getting less seasonal every year with "year round" products like chlamydia and H. pylori increasing in sales, but I think the summer of 97 will still be somewhat seasonal. Even though 1st quarter fy 98 (ending on 6-30-97) will probably be weaker than 4th quarter fy 97 (ending 3-31-97) it should still be substantially better than 1st qtr fy 97 (ended 6-30-97) which was basically flat ( 1 cent per share, I think). Long term outlook, better every year for QDEL - the transition to QDEL branded products is over - perhaps another year of "seasonality" in sales, then it should be long steady growth- I never bought this stock to double my money in 6 months and I don't think others should either- but if you want long steady growth for the next 5 years +, this is a good place for your money- All IMHO, as Greg on the TRIBY thread would say! BOB

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