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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 133.20

+5.7%

3:59 PM EST

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To: JRI who wrote (102680)	2/19/1999 2:47:00 PM
From: Gabriel008	Read Replies (2) of 176387

John, I was sifting through postings on the thread and caught yours to Chuzz re. DELL's Q1 estimates. Let me add my thoughts to the discussion. DELL has a 100,000 unit volume carryover from Q4 [that wasn't executed in Q4] into Q1 that will boost this Q's revenues and earnings. So, when I hear DELL management talking about mid single digit sequential growth in Q1 something doesn't add up. The strong pipeline going into Q1 [app. 100,000 units] in itself is worth 7% to 8% and this doesn't include any additional sequential growth. And, we know that DELL will be very aggressive this quarter. I believe DELL management is trying to manage our Q1 expectations downward. In reality, this mid single digit growth forecast will more likely turn into mid teens growth for Q1. Here are my estimates on Q1: Unit volume....2,530....15% sequential and 58% yoy growth ASP...........$2,300....ASP decline of $50/unit from Q4 Revenue.......$5.819 billion..12.55% sequential growth over Q4 GP............$1.292 billion..22.2% GP versus 22.4% in Q4 OPEX..........$610 million....10.5% vs 10.9% in Q4 OPINCOME......$682 million INCOME BT.....$692 million INCOME AT.....$484 million Shares........1.37 billion EPS...........$0.35 CHUZZ indicated that DELL's entry into the sub $1000 would impact ASPs and margins in Q1. But, unless I'm mistaken, the sub $1000 entry is more of a Q2 or even Q3 [back to school] possibility. Do you see anything in these estimates [other than my typically bullish point of view] or in DELL's Q1 that could impact these numbers? Regards, Gabriel

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