Mason, I wouldn't pull the trigger on Semis yet. It's true that they've had a big run-up in the past 5 months (although a nice downturn in the last 1.5 weeks) The b-t-b numbers are simply going to get better through the next fiscal year, and with declining value in big-caps and blue chips (especially Dow stocks) the sector rotation out of those into semis could propel the stocks to truly astronomical prices. I too have been watching the drillers (on the drillers thread) and have read things in Forbes, etc. about how the sector will bounce bace... eventually, but I've been talking to Baird Soule and some others, and they don't see recovery soon. I myself don't see recovery for a while, because (1) i see recovery in that sector tied to an increase in demand, which won't happen until the Asian economies recover, and (2) that won't happen for (it now looks like) at least a year. Furthermore, if (read when) China devalues the yuan, those economies will be hit hard and likely contract further.
I think there's the chance to catch a rolling wave here. My own plan is to stay in semi-land (and internet infrastructure related stocks like Aware and Netspeak - to name two of my holdings) for the next 6 months or so, and as the numbers on the b-t-b start to cool, rotate heavy into drillers. (i may keep the internet-related issues.)
jess
ps - as of this moment, i've made about 125% (paper profits) and was up 190% until two weeks ago.
pps - i also own 1,000 Ciena and they are starting to look real good. another big contract in the last week, plus there's always the takeover possibility |
