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Gold/Mining/Energy : Barrick Gold (ABX)
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To: bill who wrote (992)2/19/1999 9:36:00 PM
From: bill  Read Replies (1) of 3558
 
Read the SA thread. A cartel is a cartel is a cartel. Certainly
now is the time to consolidate. At least if you think you are
close to a bottom. If the SA's can produce 190 dollar an oz. gold
in deep mines good on them. With social conditions being what
they are (crime)plus unemployment plus substantial illegal
immigration from countries where conditions are much worse,
they may be able to keep costs down. Maybe SA won't go up in
flames but I wouldn't put my money on that roulette table.
Mandela goes and the glue that is holding the country more
or less together goes. The question may be not whether the
SA's can produce gold at 190 using cheap labour but whether
they will be able to produce gold at all. See the deal DeBeers
made to get the govt to give it a big piece of SUF's diamond
find. The gold consolidation may have a similar side deal as a
way of keeping control.

Canadian miners have been badly burned in China, Russia, Indonesia
and may find themselves tied to the stake in Africa. Greed
blinds people to risk and miners seem to have a particular blind
spot when it comes to politics--not that they aren't aware of
it but that they overestimate their ability to control their
situation. One assumes the SA's have to deal or die. Or move on.
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