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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin
RMBS 103.99+2.3%12:43 PM EST

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To: MileHigh who wrote (16028)2/19/1999 9:41:00 PM
From: Marc Schiler  Read Replies (3) of 93625
 
MileHigh,

Thanks. Thanks also for the analysis. Let's follow the last comment. If RMBS shows a growth rate of 71% it is (by rule of thumb) worth at least a PE of 71. But by your own projected earnings sequence, .30 -> 1.00 -> 2.00 -> 3.00 we see a growth rate which tapers off to 33%. Thus RMBS is worth a PE of 40 in 2001. 3.00 x 40 is $120.

Of course, this is conservative in that it completely discounts RMBS finding something else to do with their technology. One of the reasons that I am still bullish on RMBS is that I have confidence in their management. They admitted surprise at hitting 80 not long after IPO. That shows reasonable humility, in retrospect.

On the scary side: RMBS has 147 employees. RMBS has a market capitalization of 1.67 billion. That's over $10,000,000 per employee. That's a lot of confidence in what those 147 people will be generating! (Someone should check my figures.)

Having said all that, I appreciate your occasional fundamental analysis. This is what will really keep us from getting too confident or too panicky. RMBS has a steady stream of positive announcements, and no serious competition. It will climb. The only question is how much, and how rocky the ride.

Regards,

Marc
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