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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: Mike from La. who wrote (37869)2/19/1999 11:09:00 PM
From: Gary Burton  Read Replies (2) of 95453
 
I'll second George's call that new lows in OSX are likely. A couple of weeks ago, I laid out 2 Scenarios wave wise, 1 for new lows and the other for the low having been put in on Dec 22/98 via a 'fifth wave failure'. I said at the time that either could be in the cards and that I didn't have strong conviction which one I favoured. I have also said many times in the recent past that the BEST thing that could happen now would be for the OSX to finally go to a clear new low since that would be the LAST wave down and the picture would be complete.-- With today's failure to extend yesterday's rise and the low close, the odds of a new 5 wave drop to new lows has now risen considerably in my opinion. Under this scenario, the seesaw a-b-c-d-e triangle we have been in for several months finally ended with the Feb 3 rally to 54.03 (approx). From there, we may well have finally started Wave 5 down to new lows-the final wave. Wave 5 must proceed in a 5 subwave sequence if this is to be the case. If the OSX continues to dip Monday am, it will have completed the 3rd of such waves, with a 4-5 to come. Any print below 45.53 in a 5 wave sequence from the Feb 3 peak will suffice, although my trading software suggests that it could get down to the 40-42 area before the end. ---The key thing to keep in mind though is that we should all want a new low to finally put in its appearance as that is the clearest way for the entire drop from the top to finally come to a close. All this meandering back and forth merely clouds the picture and the sooner we print a new low the better in my opinion. And i say that as one who is long 4 osx issues at present.
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