Hi, Don! Couldn't sleep, so I got back up.
Actually, in the corporate world (where most of these data-intensive applications exist), I'd argue it's the other way around. The need for bandwidth in this environment at an individual system is pretty low. At the aggregate it might be high, but individual systems don't need that bandwidth. On the other hand, there are more systems dedicated to managing lots of data. Most manufacturing businesses are going to have CAD systems, almost every business is going to have databases, marketing departments have graphic designers, etc.
The focus for Rambus is to appear first in these systems. Then, as it comes down the cost curve and becomes basically "free" (same cost as SDRAM), there won't be any reason not to improve the performance of the average family/small-business/general-purpose-business system. But that won't happen until 2000 or 2001, as they've already said. Personally, I think it'll happen fairly quickly, but we won't know until it does.
Re: Win 200(0/1). I don't think it will have much of an effect on Rambus. RDRAM will primarily improve the applications, not the OS. Users running NT 4.0 or Win 98 with data-intensive applications will get a benefit immediately from RDRAM.
As to your last paragraph, I'd agree that Rambus can't fly too far on it's own for now. Like a glider, it needs another power source to get it airborne. And that power source will be Intel. Once RDRAM is being mass-produced, however, there is still that 50% of the market that doesn't depend on Intel and which can use the benefits. Playstations, HDTVs, network switches, and on and on. If Rambus can get to a certain level of acceptance, then their success should begin to extend well beyond the Intel-dominated areas. Not that they'd ever want to lose Intel as a customer, of course. That would be bad. Very bad.
And I have no idea what the market will do other than to say with 100% certainty that it'll go up sometimes and the rest of the time it'll go down. Except when it's staying flat. <G> Hope that's helpful.
Dave B |
