Thanks AR, didn't see his segment as I was away on business.
here's what he is saying as of Friday night
Peter Eliades' Stockmarket Cycles update for Thursday, February 18, 1999. First a note: Many subscribers have asked to be notified of our upcoming appearances on CNBC. We are scheduled to appear on CNBC tomorrow morning around 9:40 ET, 6:40 PT.
Now to the market. We believe we are both hindered and helped by the 1929 analogy. We are helped by it because we now have objective readings from both our own CN-NCI Ratio and from the ratio adjusted McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index. Objective readings that show the S&P Cash Index has not reached a new all time high close and such poor equivalent readings on the two above breadth indicators since 1929. That serves to strengthen our contention that the most overvalued market in history has now also shown analogus internal behavior to the market behavior preceding the most important top of this century, September 3, 1929.
How does this information hinder us? It hinders us because in 1929, similar conditions continued for several weeks before the final top. That makes it very difficult for us to determine if the top has already been seen and the precipice is right before us or if the market has four to even eight more weeks of upside behavior prior to the final top. We have told you recently that we were leaning more heavily toward the opinion that the top had been seen already. We retain that opinion today, but we also retain the right to be flexible enough to allow for higher highs before the precipice is reached.
Here is a possible short term clue. A 28 market day turning point pattern is due tomorrow plus or minus one day. The prior recent dates were January 8, 1999, November 27, 1998, (those should be very obvious. They were both important tops on a short term basis), October 19, 1998, that was one day before a two week top, September 9, 1998, that was one day before the September 10 closing low, July 30, 1998, was an exact top before the severe decline began in early August, June 19, 1998 was an exact closing low before the final rally to the July 17-20 top. The pattern goes back much further with consistent success. It is due tomorrow, plus or minus one day. Could it be a top that begins a precipitous decline? Time will tell.
Mutual fund switchers, Rydex switchers are in the Ursa fund. Fidelity Select switchers and all other mutual fund switchers are in cash. All mutual fund switchers should call daily after 3:20 p.m. ET for possible special updates and should call each market evening.
Stock Index futures traders, place your initial stops on our March S&P short positions at 1254.20. If you are stopped out, you may reshort on a move below 1224.00 with a stop at 1233.80. If you are not short by the end of the day tomorrow, we want you to short the September S&P MOC (market on close). There are no new projections on bonds or the XAU. Have a great day. We'll talk to you tomorrow. |
