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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: greg nus who wrote (5353)2/9/1997 5:30:00 PM
From: Mark Brophy   of 1576022
 
Well, it was a little more complicated.

I had various other reasons for investing in all 3 companies besides as a hedge against each other.

I don't agree that Intel is diversified. They get most of their profits from x86 CPUs, even though they have many other products. Cyrix exclusively sells x86 CPUs. AMD is the only diversified company in the group.

I consider the diversification a negative factor, because I can't figure out how much the company is worth. Intel and Cyrix are much easier to analyze.

There was a discussion on this thread a few months ago that Rockwell would use their large cash hoard to buy AMD. Someone reported a rumor that Jerry Sanders wouldn't sell the company for less than $40/share. That seemed plausible, so that was my target price. I sold out when it came close because there are other underpriced stocks around to buy, although it wouldn't surprise me to see AMD go up even more in the coming months as major customers like Compaq are announced and successor CPUs are released. It's going to be an interesting year in the x86 CPU business.

I sold Cyrix when AMD announced sampling of the K6. Intel left only a little room for competitive chips and the presence of the K6 darkened the future of Cyrix considerably.

I sold Intel last summer shortly after Andy Grove announced that Q3/96 would be flat. I'd already suffered through 3 consecutive flat quarters, so I invested the proceeds in AMD.

AMD was easy to invest in at the time because it was selling at only a few dollars above book value, implying minimal risk. When the entire technology portfolio of a 28 year old company is considered nearly worthless, I reckon you have a bargain.

There's still room for all 3 companies to make further gains, but I'll be surprised if any of them double again. I won't invest in a stock unless I believe it'll double within 12 months.

I use National Discount Brokers for my trades, so the commission is minimal.
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