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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 142.62+2.2%Nov 21 9:30 AM EST
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To: Gottfried who wrote (7659)2/20/1999 11:34:00 AM
From: Jess Beltz  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
Gottfired, thanks for the data. They graphically illustrate the strong correlation between upward surges in share price and forward momentum in the b-t-b ratio, and thus the hypothesis that as long as the ratio maintains its upward momentum (without much sign of slowing!) there is further price appreciation to be had in these shares. In contrast, all that the oil sector has on its side right now is the promise that someday, share prices in the sector will recover. The when is very much up in the air.

I also think that the current storm in the tech sector. i.e. the fear that the Fed is going to take up rates anytime soon, has blown itself out. Discussion of the inflation numbers Thursday and Friday reveals that the numbers are really quite benign, and therefore the Fed is very unlikely in the first half of this year to do anything with rates. Thus, in looking for something with the potential to derail a new tech-related counterrally, i think all eyes should turn once again to Asia and a close monitoring of the Chinese-Yuan currency situation. If the devaluation occurs, it will lead to further economic contractions and more fear, resulting in another bout of Asian flu. It would be wise to be in cash at that time. Until then, i think its all power to the warp engines, and i am using quite a bit of leverage again.

jess.
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