Uncle Frank, Stuart, Mike, Ron, LindyBill, etc...
Regarding AOL vs. ATHM vs. the future of the internet.
For the record, I believe AOL is a Gorilla. I own it, but unfortunately did not hang on to shares of AOL that I bought four years ago...I had to buy these shares in the past year and paid the premium that it now commands.
Regarding ATHM:
I think we have to move the conversation away from "How will these 2 compete with eachother?", and towards the bigger question of "Where is the overall internet experience headed in the future?" If any of us think that the general consumer in his/her infinite search for value, speed and convenience is going to be logging on to AOL or any other service through 56k modems or some garbage ISDN line, then we need to step back and question whether we should be investing at all. I believe we are on the brink of a revolution in the way individuals LIVE THEIR LIVES. ATHM (AT&T) will be a major player in making this transformation happen. When AT&T (as I am not convinced ATHM's service won't eventually be sold under AT&T's brand) brings to the market a service that allows us to enjoy a fuller, richer experience in the digital world, the masses will jump on it. Time is too important, and sooner or later even those grandmothers will be looking for more, more, more (faster, faster, faster)!!!!
DSL technology is not going to get us there. To believe that twisted pair copper lines will ever compete with the one massive bandwidth pipe (the cable line) already entrenched in the American culture is absurd. Please feel free to post on Bell Atlantic's thread until you are blue in the face. The fiber wired world that the RBOCs preach to us about is ten to twenty years out there, and theres something about "wireless" that just doesn't cut it on wall street when it comes to data services (not video).
AT&T and more importantly their AWESOME CEO has figured that out, and he's out to blow away the competition. In owning ATHM, at the end of the day, we own AT&T in the internet world. Imagine that company trading at an internet multiple!!!! So sure, there's plenty of room for the two to be Gorillas, because at the end of the day, they plan on hanging out in different trees. I firmly believe these two will actually
BE JOINED AT THE HIP
eventually, as AOL and AT&T will ultimately have no choice but to work with eachother. Imagine a business that combines AOL's content/experience with AT&T's telecom and customer service....
So in the end, one has what the other wants, and the sooner they figure out how to make it happen together, the sooner they get to carve the cake. Armstrong and Case will get it done.
Thanks,
Teflon |
