Lee, some is solid, some is connect the dots. IDC says that unit sales were up 12% in 1998, Dataquest 15%. But average sales prices (ASPs) were down more. How much? There is the rub. There is no published number yet. We know the largest retailer claims ASPs down 20%. We also know that retail prices held up better than business pc prices. The Dept. of Commerce estimates that pc prices declined, overall, by 26% in 1998, as part of their CPI calculation. Intel has mentioned, casually, a 25% drop in ASPs. The channel distributors are saying 20-30% down. The lowest number I've seem was from PC DATA, which claims ASPs were down 18% and PC revenues down 3%. I think that is kind of high. My best estimate is 7-10% down for PC sales. The previous worst year ever was 10% UP. We are in a new no-growth era for pc sales. That doesn't mean they will never have up quarters. They will. So do tvs and salt. But the growth of the past is past and negative growth, mostly due to lower prices, is going to be the norm.
And, of course, this year is worse because unit growth will not be as strong, if it is even positive. Unit growth will vary. But I don't see the person who paid $699 for a pc buying one for more than that next time out. And corporate boxes have just started to approach the sub $1000 level. They have much further to go.
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