PW, Just as they missed notebooks (they now make great, if overpriced notebooks), they missed the sub $1000 market. However, it is not what they are missing this time that is the biggest risk. It is the way their market has not only stopped growing, it has started to contract. Lower prices led to some higher unit sales, but there is a price to pay. Now, we have people who test computers saying that the new Celerons are as good as the PIIIs, unless you are a gamer, and the K-6-3 may be better than both. The need to pay up for high end boxes has always been suspect, but folks in business were snowed by empire building MIS managers. Now, even the executive suite knows how to run a pc and they know they don't need all the bells and whistles. That might not impact their buying decisions if eps were doing better, but they stink the house out. Cost cutting in industry is going to be the game this year and next, and Dell simply will not be able to hold margins at lower ASPs.
Effectively, if I wasn't so wordy, I would have said that the pc market has matured. It's growth phase is behind it. Meanwhile, Dell has a market valuation just about the same as the worldwide pc market sales. With a market share that does not approach 100%. <g> If that market were expanding at a rapid pace, that valuation might be crazy but not totally crazy. But it is not.
So, most of the problems are not of their making or within their ability to control. Their industry is stagnating, if not imploding. They have a capitalization similar to the size of the entire industry. That is not a good thing for the future of the stock price.
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