CR,
Price guesstimates. First, next week's split will probably cause a mild runup due to all the financial geniuses who believe 2 shares of an $80 stock are worth more than 1 share of a $160 stock--duh. (Would anyone who believes this, please contact me directly and I will sell you nine one dollar bills--count them, nine--for only one ten dollar bill.) After that, I will guess AOL consolidates recent gains (i.e., doesn't move much) and by 2 July is, say, $95 or less, though I still look for the year's high at about 125 post split.
You mention several upcoming events, some real, some speculative, that might affect AOL's price.
1) The finalized NetScape deal will have no additional effect on the share price--there's nothing new about it.
2) The MicroSoft trial, if somebody decided to actually break up MSFT, might have a small positive effect on AOL's price.
3) Next quarters earnings, which will show the usual positive seasonality, will probably do little damage and also be a mild positive.
4) AOL acquires @HOME. Very, very speculative but if it happened AOL's share price would go up substantially. Acquiring @HOME would obviously help solve the biggest problem AOL currently faces, bandwidth. The stock could add 50% on that news but that news is unlikely to occur, IMO.
Best,
--Steve
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