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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 689.100.0%Jan 23 4:00 PM EST
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To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (6759)2/20/1999 7:24:00 PM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
INDEX UPDATE
=========================================

After reading my last INDEX UPDATE it could have been misleading, so I would like to make it clear that I am not turning bullish, just that there could be an upswing/flatness next week to work off some of the short-term oversold conditions especially in the NAZ.

After doing some more research, I feel that the next downswing could be the stronger pullback. Many of the major indexes just recently tested their 50 day moving averages. A break of 50 DMA could imply a test of the 200 DMA.

Some analysis are calling for a strong selloff to start as early as MONDAY, but just feel we may have one more week of relative flatness and maybe one last upspike before the stronger selling starts. An upspike could take the DOW above 9400 but as long as it does not stay above 9400, the selling should start shortly thereafter. The next significant resistance in the DOW is around 9500, if it gets that high. If any strong upspike is not immediately confirmed by a dramatic improvement in the market internals, such should be a good selling opportunity.

I am becoming more and more negative to the overall market and strongly suspect a test of the 200 day moving average by latest JUNE/early JULY if it takes that long. Frankly, I suspect that the market could see the 200 DMA by the end of APRIL/early MAY and I would not be surprised if it even happened faster than that in MARCH.

Seeya
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