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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: KY who wrote (222)	2/20/1999 8:07:00 PM
From: JRH	Read Replies (1) of 54805

Any value investors out there sniffing around at SAP? Yea, I have been looking at it, but I am a little uneasy about it still. I dumped what I had in early November 98 because I had tuition bills to pay. However, I have been contemplating picking some up again because it just seems too cheap and there is a chance that they will come back strong. The only problem I have can be summarized with one word: saturation. All the big bucks for SAP came from the gigantic multi-nationals. And now they almost all have SAP's software installed. Now, the argument can be made that this is a positive for the company because, as an Oracle rep once told me, installed market is key for future upgrades. However, the opposite can be said as well. I don't believe that they will be making as much money because upgrades are a fraction of the huge costs and employee allocation it takes to install it in the first place! And since the big market is close to be saturated, they have to go for small-mid sized companies. And, quite frankly, from what I hear, an SAP implementation could spell financial disaster if something goes haywire for a company that does not have the savings accounts of a Coke or Gillette.

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