MDB:
Despite your well written posts,logical arguments and exquisite timing on calling a down period for Dell, I do not believe you are
scheduled for Bear of the Decade honors if you now continue to short the mighty Dell.
Heres why:
Despite the October drops, suspected stock manipulations, triple
witches,Greenspan talks, Japan bank failures, under $1k competition,here is how Dell has performed:
From data stretching back up to two years
Typical number of sequential 'down' days
* 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,3,3,3,4
Conclusions: When Dell goes down it goes down fast. Big money
is out in a hurry on bad news.One sacrifice I make as a long term holder is to watch the stock go down overnite with no warning
and no recourse.
Typical number of sequential 'down' weeks:
1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2
Conclusion: Dell has now gone down for one week. Looks like one chance in ten of it dropping next week, with an 80% chance of it
staying flat or going up. And Mikie speaks.
Typical number of sequential 'up' days :
1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,2,3,3,3,3,3,4,9
Conclusion : When it starts up, its likely to go up 2 or more
days in row. I guess thats good. And it does not seem wise
to risk being 'out' of Dell
Typical number of sequential 'up' weeks:
1,1,2,2,2,3,3,3,3,3,3,4,4,4,4,4,5
Conclusion: When Dell starts up she goes on a tear of about 2 to 4 weeks which is very obvious in the charts. In fact its often only 34 days between new highs.
A real bear killer. Beware of charging bull herds. Stay well back from the train tracks
As the song goes-"Ya gotta know when to hold them, know when to fold 'em"
*Note: The daily ups and downs are not very significant, since the stock could drop one day, recover slightly the next day, and then drop further the next day,etc.
Past Dell bears (RIP) ( Candlestick, Hank) did actually enter
near a Dell peak Failed to call the bottom. There will be a bottom.
Its your call.
Try this line from Drew's last post: Dell's
unit shipments, meanwhile, are in full throttle,
jumping 67.6 percent for outside the United
States and 65 percent in the United States.
Sig |
