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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.
DELL 127.22+3.8%3:59 PM EST
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To: abraves who wrote (103441)2/21/1999 12:41:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin  Read Replies (2) of 176387
 
Abraves, Why won't the techs come back? Some will. Some day. New techs will be created and they will prosper. Happens every cycle. And I buy some of them every cycle. A handful of the older names also stay in business and prosper. I buy fewer of them, as it is harder to regain a shine after you've been slimed. It is just that the majority of fluff tech stocks today will go down and stay down. There is an old saying from the 1960s, "All tech stocks eventually go to $4." It is a joke and certainly Hewlett-Packard and IBM and Motorola have been around a while without going to $4. But they have suffered greatly after a cycle peaks and the majority of tech stocks from other decades are either no longer with us or a shadow of their former capitalizations.

We certainly could have another small stumble like in the fall and then the techs bounce back if the Fed is ready to be even more reckless on the credit creation front. IMHO, this time, the dips who buy on dips will get ruined. But I have overestimated Alan Greenspan's intelligence in the past and he could be crazier than even I think and throw out more credit to waste on stocks.

Abraves, you just haven't been in the market long enough. If you started in the middle of the South Sea Bubble, the 1920s bubble, or Tulip Mania, you would also have the feeling that these things could never go down for long. Odd, folks who started investing in the mid 1970s and early 1920s thought they would never go up again. Environmental factors make extreme and extremely wrong concepts look solid to new investors.

Best,

MB
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