You are correct, I have not been in the market since there was a real bear market. I guess the way I figure it is that if I beat the S&P by 5 or 6 times over each year from buying stocks like DELL, and 83% of the MM's can't even beat the S&P, that if the bad times come and I have to get out, I will still be way ahead of what they did. Even if I lose half the value of my portfolio overnight, I would have still doubled the MM's performance. True, I will lose more in a short period, but over the long haul I still come out ahead. Also I can tell you that if I were to lose half the value of my portfolio overnight, it would not be a great day for the value investors either...
I have another question.... If it better to own value stocks how come the MM's had one of their worst years last year. I mean we know the techs got hammered but came right back up. But the value investing portfolio managers got killed. From posting with you, it sounds to me like you are saying that owning value is ok if a bear market comes, so the best thing to own is value.
I don't have any data to back this up but it looks to me like most of the 17% of the MM's who beat the S&P last year had the big techs in their portfolio...
I personally think the herd is making a bigger and bigger impact on the stock market because of on-line trading. A good example is last year in my company when most people got their bonuses they were talking about buying cars etc... This year most were talking about what stock to buy.. It is funny that 2 years ago I did not hardly hear any stock talk in our offices, now it's hard to walk around the office without seeing quote and on-line trading screens up.
You know some of the stocks that I buy like DELL, MSFT, CSCO, I am just curious what kind of stocks are value investors buying ? Can you tell me what some of the stocks that you are buying long ? |
