SB,
Someone who invested $100 at the Nikkei top of 100 (say) with the Nikkei today at 35 (say) has lost 65%. However, someone who invested $50 at 100 and $50 more at 65 (say, on the way down) has lost 56%. So, just splitting up the investments into 2 blocks is better, now splitting it up on a weekly basis is even better - try the math, you will be surprised to find out how inefficient market timing really is. IOW, witness the power of dollar cost averaging at work!
And someone who invested $33.33 at 65 (sometime between 1980 and 1989, say), $33.33 at 100, and $33.33 at 35 has lost even less, some 37%. So, it is even better to invest across market tops and bottoms.
I have ignored the time value of money here, including that will alter the calculations somewhat but the basic premise will remain the same.
As for death, if I make 2000% on DELL calls (as I did over 12/98-2/98) and die tomorrow, what inference, if any, are you going to draw from that experience? I am not paranoid enough to decide my investment approach based on the possibility that I may die tomorrow.
-BGR.
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