Willam:
A few things on short interest. According to you, the specialist would be short over 4 million shares right now (85% of 5 mil), and would almost always have a short position, do you really think that is a possibility? I am not sure where you are getting the 85% from but it might be referring to something else- the percentage of short stock traded, not the short position. The specialist is buying and selling stock constantly, unless he has an inventory of long stock to begin with, all of the stock he sells is a short sale. He might buy and sell short 100,000 shares in one day in smaller lots, and have the same position the next day even though he sold 100,000 short. It is the funds, hedges and arbitrage players that account for the majority of short positions. Not the specialist!
On the fundamental side, I completely agree with your views. I think this is the beginning of a strong cycle for the industry and SEG is the leader. Demand stayed strong after the holiday season (which usually slows a bit) and into this quarter. That is a very good sign. Earnings should get better each quarter at least for the next few. The stock will double in next 12-18 months.
chichi |
