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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: Razorbak who wrote (37933)2/21/1999 9:57:00 PM
From: BigBull  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
Razor: Interesting isn't it? Under the scenario you suggest ($5 - $6 a barrel):

1.) Venezuela would surely collapse, and take with it probably the whole of South America.

2.) The inflation on the streets of Teheran would approach that of Germany in the thirties.

3.) The Saudi welfare state would disappear, thus forcing it's current residents to return to the idyllic life of the desert bedouin, replete with tents and camels.

4.) Same deal with Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain.

5.) The palestinians would be completely cut off from the subsidies they receive from their gracious rich Arab brothers.

6.) The welfare states built on oil in Alaska, Norway, and Scotland would also collapse leaving those folks in dire economic straits.

7.) Indonesia would cease to exist.

8.) Nigeria would cease to exist.

9.) The debt assumed by all these nations based upon oil "profits" would be repudiated.

10.) Mexico would be very hard pressed, and would also probably collapse.

11.) The financial crises resulting from the above would make the LTC debacle look like a Sunday picnic at the beach.

12.) War would most certainly break out in the middle east.

13.) In all likely hood our Saudi and Kuwaiti Royal friends would be deposed in the ensuing war, leaving the U.S. without a cheap source of foreign oil.

All this, so that North Sea producers can be "disciplined". Hey, it's possible! Why not?
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