Excellent analysis, Goodboy. But I have one objection to it: Iridium management has approximately 4 weeks to deliver the goods. This stock does not have months left in it, but weeks. I reiterate what I said earlier: Either Iridium pulls an ace out of its sleeve in the next couple of weeks, or the "domino effect" will begin the cascade that slams the door shut on any hope they have of making the numbers they need.
If Iridium management isn't thinking creatively now, your projection of a bottom in the second half will occur before the end of April.
As a subscriber and investor, I am keenly interested in seeing whether Iridium's recent corporate behavior is the rule...or the exception to it.
The Y2K argument as being the medium-term "savior" of Iridium is one that has appeal; Ed Staiano made a pitch for the benefits of Iridium for Y2K contingencies. There's just one problem: I didn't believe it, and I don't think anyone else did either. It's a "Hail Mary" pass in a losing football game. Even if they sold 100,000 phones for Y2K "doomsday" plans, Motorola gets the money for the phones, and when the world doesn't end on 12/31/99, they generate ZERO minutes.
Now that you've brought the Y2K subject up, my gall gets up all over again at Staiano's weak attempt to deflect attention from the fact that the real "users" of Iridium have not materialized. Playing the Y2K card, in retrospect, is the act of a desperate management.
My opinions, and all colored by the disdain a shareholder who's investment is lagging is entitled to... |
