BigB
Add to your list the growing tensions between Iran and its population. The religious conservative
government is increasing using more repressive means to silence critics against it. It came out that their Intelligence Dep't had a death squad killing moderate leaders. When a government uses those types of actions, purely for political reasons, that is to protect it's position, it shows two things. First, it feels threatened. Second it is losing it's legitimacy to rule its people. Growing numbers of the population are rejecting the rulers' position that they rule because they were chosen by God to do so. Iran has a elected moderate president who is actively opposed to the conservatives, so the conservatives do not have total political power. Katami, the president, keeps making sure that liberal newspapers keep publishing. The conservatives are most afraid of that, they know their grip is slipping, and popular protest against them, reported by the news media, is the most potent weapon against them. They responded in true fanatic fashion, they have started treating their population as enemies of the State, therefore feeding more popular resentment, which they cannot silence.
Meanwhile the Government is also pursuing its foreign policy of combating the Sunni's and I believe that war has now spread into Iraq. We may be seeing the most visible attempt by Iran in Iraq to gain influence with the reaction to the assassination of the Shi'ite clerics. This has to have the US, the Saudi's and Kuwait nervous, yet they cannot aid their fellow Sunni, Saddam, against the Shi'ite majority, for obvious reasons. The whole area is under tremendous stress.
Low oil prices, plus distractions elsewhere has induced complacency towards the dangers all this presents to the flow of oil.
Mike
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