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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN)
CIEN 178.17+1.0%Nov 21 4:00 PM EST
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To: Adrew Thanh who wrote (6525)2/22/1999 12:41:00 PM
From: still learning  Read Replies (3) of 12623
 
How can you call that a good report?

1. Market outperform is not exactly glowing. Especially coming froma company that makes a market in this security.

2. "No change in our rounded $0.30 estimate for fiscal (October) 1999 or our calendar 1999 $0.50 estimate, but the year is more backend loaded than we previously forecast." Neutral comnment. Also GS is above others at .30 and is probably high. Backend loaded year is not new, but not positive.

3. "Gross margin of 42% should allow the company to post double-digit net margins, which is probably sufficient for shareholders and reasonable in light of the competitive environment." Note wording: Sufficient and reasonable -- not exactly hitting on all cylindars.

4. "Also the pooling restriction ends in a couple of weeks." Sounds like merger/acquis. is still on their minds.

5. "Upcoming catalysts for the stock include the OFC trade show in San Diego next week, which should attract more attention to optical networking. On the other hand, plenty of companies are likely to make announcements at that show as well, which may or may not favor Ciena. (The one to watch is Cisco..."
A trade show as a stock catalyst? -- doubtful. Note comments about, plenty of companies -- read that to say nothing will stand out in a crowded field unless it's really important. Don't expect product announcements to change the stock price.

5. Stock dropped before earnings and recovered after -- net net it's a push. Pru upgrade was to accumulate from hold. A step in the right direction, but nothing like a buy or strong buy. Price target of 26 (is that 12 or 18 months?) Not a lot of upside there.
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