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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 133.20

+5.7%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (103706)	2/22/1999 1:34:00 PM
From: jim kelley	Read Replies (4) of 176387

MB, I checked the inventories reported by CPQ in Q4 1998. It looks like they had 3.9 weeks of inventory. But I believe that is INTERNAL INVENTORY. The units they ship to the channel are invoiced sales. So it is not possible to tell what their actual channel stuffing is without additional information from IDC the CC etc. Where did you get your 3.9 weeks of channel stuffing? My estimate of their channel stuffing was based on their IDC numbers compared with the rest of the industry. Your point on revenue growth versus unit growth is correct for AP. A post today on the Asia Pacific market using IDC numbers indicates that revenues fell 5.9% on unit growth increase of 7% over Q4 of 1997. This shows an average ASP of $1,453 in 1998 versus an ASP of $1,641. The decline in ASP is 11.41 % which is greater than the increase in unit shipments. So your point is valid for Asia Pacific. JK

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