Dr. Yardeni: 'COMMENT: The US continues to experience a deflationary boom. Large tax
refunds should keep growth strong in the first half. European economies are
slowing significantly led by weaker exports. The Japanese are desperately
attempting to end their depression by lowering bank rates to almost zero,
so the yen is getting weak again. China looks unstable. Commodity prices
continue to plunge. Internet stocks seem to have topped a few weeks ago,
suggesting the favorable seasonal flows into stocks at the beginning of the
year may have run their course already. The break in Dell's stock suggests
that even great unit-growers may start to disappoint exuberant investors.
Bond yields often rise at the beginning of the year, creating a great
buying opportunity in the Spring.
SUBSCRIBERS: In my latest GLOBAL PORTFOLIO STRATEGY, I reassess the
earnings outlook, and remain bearish for 1999 and 2000. I also show that
the breadth of the bull market has deteriorated because earnings breadth is
deteriorating, with fewer companies showing positive year-over-year
comparisons.
PUBLIC: You can now find daily updates of economic indicators not only for
the G7 economies, but also Asian and Latin economies. On the home page,
you'll find updated CHART BOOKS on the money supply and commercial banking.
I've recently added Page/Site/Network Navigators on several pages to make
it easier for you to access the information you need more quickly. I am
adding and seeking network partners.
Y2K: My latest Y2K REPORTER is posted. I still see a 70% chance of a global
2000 recession. But I have more information now, so the picture is no
longer black and white. I can add some colors: orange--25%--mild six-month
downturn, red--40%--severe 12-month recession, black--5%--depression. I am
somewhat less worried about the US federal government, but more concerned
about numerous weak links in global supply chains, which could seriously
disrupt just-in-time manufacturing. Don't forget to tune in to the T-300
Y2K Action Day Conference on Contingency Planning issues broadcast all the
time over the Internet starting March 7.
MOVIES: "Little Voice" is a very entertaining little movie.
Dr. Ed
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