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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.
DELL 117.19+3.5%Jan 22 3:59 PM EST

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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (103840)2/22/1999 4:05:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (2) of 176387
 
Michael, I will try to explain this to you one last time.

When you said My view is that Gabriel claims that 3q to 4q is seasonally weak, and he is right. But now Dell is claiming that 1Q and 2Q are seasonally weak.

That statement is a total distortion of the information you have been repeatedly given. The inescapable conclusions are as follows: Dell's weakest quarters are and always have been Q1 and Q2. Its strongest quarters are, and have been Q3 and Q4 (those quarters are not weak as you claim). This is not a shift in position or analysis. The fact is that the industry as a whole is much more seasonal than Dell, which means that historically, companies like CPQ and GTW have much bigger Q4 sequential increases in sales than Dell, and during Dell's relatively weak Q1 where sales average only a 6.2% sequential increase over Q4, both GTW and CQP show sequential declines in sales. That does not mean that Dell's Q1 sales are seasonally strong, because if you annualize that figure you will see that the seasonally unadjusted number would give an annual sales growth of only 27.2%, or about half of what Dell's annual sales growth has been historically. By comparison, Dell's historic Q4 sequential sales growth (including this "poor" quarter) is 13.34%, or 65% annualized, which is higher than sales have increased annually over the last four years.

CTC
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