Uncle Frank,
I know you are in "Deep" as I am with respect to our favorite Gorilla, that being MSFT. I posted earlier today on MSFT's board and, since I am not confident you read those posts, decided I would repost my thoughts here to gain your insight. Note the following:
t2k and the MSFT faithful:
Please take heart in today's stock action, we have seen this before. Almost every year, MSFT's stock will get taken down early in the year for a variety of "reasons". But the stock's reaction is always the same. First, it gives up ground easily, almost too easily, and retreats 10-15% from its highs. In periods when there seems to be overwhelming negative sentiment regarding MSFT for whatever reason (as we currently have with the trial) the stock may be taken down an additional 5%. But as I said, it always reacts the same way.
When the stock nears its bottom, it tends to give up ground in the
morning, then fights back in the afternoon -- as it has been doing for the past three sessions. Sometimes it even squeezes out a gain(see last session). Today we are seeing more of the same, although I am not confident it will end the day in the black -- if we do, this is very bullish. I remember this feeling I now have in my stomach, the "Oh my God, it can't continue to go down like this" feeling! It usually coincides with the bottom.
Regardless, the schedule that Jackson has just put in place for the remainder of this part of the trial (and recess) heading into the summer will provide support for the stock. Shorters will get nervous about the lack of negative PR coming from the courtroom during this long reprieve, and when considered with all the positives in the short term, will start to cover. There has also been a lot of Call Option activity on this stock, and I believe the work is complete in getting the prices desired.
I fully expect the stock to start its rebound in the near term. If not for the behavior that I see now in the stock (behavior which has historically denoted a "bottom"), I think the trial activity may soon start to work in our (MSFT Longs) favor.
Thanks,
Teflon
p.s., the only thing I see potentially infringing on MSFT's ability to maintain/grow its Gorillahood, is the lack of freedom it has historically enjoyed in purchasing competitive/complementary businesses. This being a key characteristic of a true "Gorilla". |
