All,
At various times over the past couple of years, we have had some discussions about forecasting. Indeed, this thread was opened with the hope that perhaps by pooling our "small fry" insights, we could somehow trade ahead of the drive cycles, a hope that has, alas, more often than not been frustrated. Here is a post on forecasting the semiconductor market which is just as relevant to drives:
Message 7949720
an excerpt:
<<During Applied Material's company presentation at SEMInvest, Joe Bronson admitted that "we don't know how to call cycles at all." He said their forecasting had been disappointing.
When asked by this writer if this upturn would be different from the boom-bust cycle of the 1996-1997 in that the chipmakers may have learned something, he referred back to this comment. He just doesn't know. Scott Kulicke said regarding forecasts that "all tend to forecast but never believe them." George Chamillard, CEO of Teradyne, said he was "cynical" of forecasts. He said one should enjoy the cycle when it turns but hunker down quickly when it turns against you.>>
and one more:
<<Despite the fact that Joe Bronson's visibility is six months at Applied Materials and the company's admitted shortcoming in forecasting, analysts -- at least ones who spoke openly on the topic -- are forecasting a multi-year upcycle in the sector. All during the conference, this was the underlying assumption to the high valuations in this sector. Absolutely no analyst I heard speak or spoke to personally disagreed with this proposition.>>
(If I could have one wish after reading the post, and seeing the rally in the semiconductor stocks since October (especially the equipment stocks), I would wish that some of the semiconductor analysts would start following the DD stocks. Or, conversely, I just should have sold my DD stocks, and held the semi stocks that I traded in and out of last fall.)
Best regards,
Sam |
