Earnings Estimate
With earnings only a few days away, I thought I would post my best guesses for the quarter. I would love for Todd to compare mine to his - i know his info posted a few weeks back had similar EPS info, but on much less revenue. Would love to know where we differ!
Executive summary:
Net Sales - 111,280,000
EPS - .89
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Revenues: 111,280,000
Key Revenue drivers:
1,620,000 Revenge / $68,850,000
525,000 Rugrats PSX / $17,075,000
225,000 Rugrats GB / $4,500,000
135,000 Bugs life / $2,700,000
130,000 NWO World Tour / $4,300,000
100,000 Nitro PSX / $3,000,000
Expected Sales by Platform:
PC - 1% (i hope its higher personally)
N64 - 67%
PSX - 22%
GB - 10%
Pct of sales from WCW - 80%
I didn't try to break out foreign vs. domestic. Above numbers
cover both.
Also, my net sales assume about 10% of top line sales get
reserved. This also affects expense pcts below, since fewer
reserves will cause my pct of net sales to look high and more
reserves will cause them to look low.
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Expenses:
Cost of Goods - using about $9-10 cost for a psx game, 15-20 for a n64 game, $12 for a gb game, and $4 for a pc game, I come up with a COGS of 44.0%. Past 3 qtrs have been 43.2, 46.4, and 42.0, so I think I am in the ball park. If anything, I think I may be too low. The high pct of sales on GB / N64 should drive the pct a little higher and more consistent with the q2 # of 46.4 (when quest was a key driver of revenue).
Product Development - a guestimate of $1,300,000. I know Todd always has a much better handle on this.
Royalties....back in q1 when 88% of our sales came from WCW the royalties rate was 23.5%. I am expecting it to be a little higher this quarter - 24%. The reason is while 80% of the revenue is my model is WCW, the non-WCW revenue is also property driven - rugrats, small soldiers, mulan, bugs life. 24% may even be low.
Selling - past 3 qtrs have been 12.2, 12.8, 8.1 and 9.3% of GROSS SALES. We have had a lot of advertising this quarter, but lots of revenue to spread it across, and plus I think PSX helped with the rugrats ads. I am going with 9%. Probably a little low..
G & A - I am using 2,900,000. Back on q1 conf call, company gave guidance that q4 would be similar to q1. q1 was 2.9 million as well.
TOTAL EXPENSES FROM ALL ABOVE = 95,352,000
INCOME FROM OPERATIONS: 15,937,000
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ADDITIONAL INCOME - Guessing Interest Income at 285,000 (was 250,000 last quarter).
Income before taxes = 15,937 + 285 = 16,222
Provision for Inc Taxes - I know they said to use 36 and they keep saying it...but I going to hedge and use 35% = 5,678.
Leaving Net Income = 10,544
Divided by 12,000,000 shares = .886
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Final comments:
* I am usually too high on revenues, am usually off by about 10%
* But I usually overestimate taxes and expenses, which offsets it....
* I didnt even try to account for rushware in this model.
Good luck to all this Thursday. Why we are languishing at 22 and change is beyond me. It makes me wonder if maybe for once my revenues are way too high and expenses right on....if so we may only earn in the .70s...which i dont think would be received well if everyone is expecting a blowout.
Comments welcomed!
Chris |
