Looks like AXC is becoming an Internet "Story Stock"
Today's share price mirrored the reversal after intermediate downtrend as seen in such high flyers as AOL, AMZN and MALL. This could represent "market sense" passing judgement on how Ampex will be valued in the near future.
The notion of a broadcasting equipment company verses an Internet holding company is probably preventing Analyst coverage and mass media coverage from giving covering follow-on analysis. Hopefully, this positioning will gel within the next several months. Then we could get more visibility coming from these quarters.
Of further interest is today's price movement on again relatively small volume. A 26% gain (2.81 - 3.31) on less than average volume of 419,000. While not strictly comparable, similar gains at this price level occurred on 1/25 (1.93 - 2.68 on 1,279,300) and 1/26 (~2.68 - 3.50 on 2,220,200). On these two days in January, prices were pushing through price levels not seen for almost 1 ½ years. However, volume was three times and five times that of today.
The observation I am drawing here is again one of very small effective float available to support transactions trading. Thus, prices are moving in a somewhat volatile manner on a relatively small number of shares.
Should significant GOOD news be forthcoming, the effect could be explosive. Also, if that news contains information which clarifies Ampex's positioning, then media and analyst coverage follow-on could take Ampex out of the shadows and bring in public participation. In sum, the price momentum could be rapid and surprising.
While I am certainly not saying that these events will occur as I outlined, there is the recent memory of the sharp run up in the December - January time frame. While that run benefitted from a January effect boost, a current run could benefit from a combination of expanding revenues and a clarifying statement of new business direction - almost like a "new venture" announcement effect.
Time, or I should say, trading volume will tell. I would temporarily suspend belief on valuation measures and on TA guidelines. The one could lead you to "unjustified heights" while the other could lead you to "fear of heights."
Ed Perry
PS: I was Reading that note on Monopoly Game puns but I refuse to be railroaded into that one. |
