BGR:
Not even a possibility. For better or for worse, I'm a fundamentalist, and values are just insane. Besides which, I'm both comfortable and mildly profitable on the short side.
I was a raging tech bull until two years ago but once the bloom came off the PC situation, I moved to the Darth Vader camp. With the funds carrying 30-40% of their portfolios in tech stocks (where previously they carried 10%), and with the whole semi industry dependent on PC sales, I expected an "unloading" once discounting commenced. That process was slow to commence, but is finally underway, albeit reluctantly. The PC sales cycle has a long way to go before it bottoms, and will minimally require some powerful new apps to so do. Continued price wars and reduced revenues is a given and a collapse wouldn't surprise me. The big picture, a world-wide deflationary wave, is also on the side of the bears. Nothing like fewer and fewer potential purchasers to squash silly sales projections.
I like the odds to be on my side when I invest rather than depend on the "greater fool" theory. As far as I'm concerned, the current market is paying me a potent dividend to be patient, that being the massively strengthened value of cash on the back side of the coming crunch.
I actually find it beyond amazing that so many investors chose to ignore a continuing stream of powerful warnings that things are coming apart, but that I suppose has always been the historical case.
A happy, comfortable and contented bruin, I'll "pig-out" on stocks when "investors" hate them. (g)
Best, Earlie |
