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Strategies & Market Trends : Graham and Doddsville -- Value Investing In The New Era

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To: porcupine --''''> who wrote (1326)2/23/1999 10:08:00 AM
From: Freedom Fighter  Read Replies (3) of 1722
 
Porc,

I am far from an expert in Austrian theory. I am a novice. But I do know enough about it to know that I disagree with your view of "what it is" to begin with. You do not understand it well enough to trash it. I also disagree about whether it has intellectual merit in understanding what's going on in the world and the implications of those actions. I am CERTAIN it does.

Economics is a subject that has only marginal value in "value investing" other than to perhaps understand why an economy is performing the way it is in the "short term". So it's really not worthy of a long discussion. It just seems to me that if you truly believe in free markets,(and I know you do)you would not be such a big fan of central banking credit inflation or government intervention for the simple reason that both are not free market activities. Even if the intention is to correct prior mistakes by those very institutions.

I have several thoughts about Japan. I am not quite sure how Japan can get out its mess with undo pain. Perhaps they will have to devalue significantly and lower their peoples standard of living to avoid credit deflation. I do not know. I do know this though. It was central bank credit inflation that caused the stock market and real estate bubble back in the 80s that is primarily the cause of the current problems there to begin with. It was subsequent government actions that built all those uneconomical bridges to nowhere, piled up debt etc... trying to jump start the economy for the last few years. It was more central bank credit inflation (attempting to bail banks out from the bubble bursting) that lead to all sorts of overcapacity throughout the rest of Asia as they sought to grow out of the mess. And it was the "Yen Carry" trade in small part that helped cause the financial seizure last year.

10 years of hell for the Japanese has been the result of something that Austrian analysis would have both predicted and prevented to BEGIN WITH. Something that many investment proponents used to cash in on big time when the bubble did finally burst.

To me understanding and money is already enough merit.

Wayne
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