'..... First of all, my expertise is *only* in enterprise systems. Strike
embeddeds, power generation, midi-computers, etc. I've dabbled in
other areas, spent 6 months hopelessly lost in the VMS file system.
I've worked on S/360, S/370, and S/390.
Within the IBM mainframe world, I'm more a generalist than a
specialist. Unlike the typical MVS systems programmer, I crank code a
lot, much of it on PeeCees using C and C++. I picked up a little
theoretical computer science too.
I was fortunate enough to have a wide range of experiences along the
way. During the mainframe boom of the 1970's, I spent some time coding
8080 Northstar assembler. I don't do CICS or IMS but I have worked on
the internals of a mainframe DBMS.
What I do know, and know with some certainty is that there are about
50,000 IBM style mainframes in the world. There are systems running
that were written 30-40 years ago. The work has not been done to fix
the problem on the enterprise systems side. These systems are at risk
and will fail. The failures will not be of the nature that you can fix
them in an hour or two.
A couple years ago, I surveyed a number of mainframe experts. Some of
these people I have known for years. Most of them were gloomier than I
am and even more certain that I am that the systems will fail.
Of the mainframe experts in my survey, there were a couple who did not
anticipate serious outages. One of these pollys appears to have changed
his mind. He's the IT director at a multi-national corp.
In the old days, people were appreciated for their skills and abilities.
Somehow, this was lost in the 1980's. There was a decade of rightsizing
and the superficial and clueless wormed their way into power. We had
pop-biz-psych-jive, buzz-words, and management by magazine article and
fad. This was followed by the 1990s, the decade of the quick buck, more
flash, and mergers and acquisitions.
Beneath the fluff, handwaving, and powerpoint slides, the original
systems have continued to run. As if every programmer who ever worked
still toils for the company, still gets the bills out, still reconciles
the books, still manages the information and advises the company.
Software doesn't rust and even the iron runs long after the its time is
up. IT investments made decades ago, still pay a dividend and all it
asks for is a little power and floorspace and nothing else until now.
Now, a bill for accumulated maintenance is about to come due. These
systems should have been continuously made new, revised, rewritten every
5 or 10 years. We have 20 years of back maintenance to do in then next
10 months. This work should have been done by a generation of workers
who were never hired or trained.
It must be done, it cannot be deferred. There are 312 days left. There
isn't enough time.
Management has started screaming in the District of Columbia,
hey, it's not 1992, wha happened? Along with the screaming, there is
the clueless bickering for larger budgets, is this a real problem, who
let this happen, we're going to make it (usually said looking firm and
clenching a fist).
Sorry people, in every war, there are winners and losers but mostly
there are losers on both sides. We're not going to win this one. It
can't be resolved, cap'n, I canna hold her.
JT, tell your people to make their peace, there's not going to be a good
resolution to this one.
I don't know what will happen. There's still a wall at 7,493 hours that
I can't see past. I can hear sounds from the other side, like large
animals growling and people yelling and I can't make out what they are
saying.
I can't tell you how to get ready, gold doesn't ward off disease, food
doesn't stop a riot, and walls don't keep unemployment out. I don't
know if it's the Masque of the Red Death, a business opportunity, the
Eloi, or the new golden age that awaits us.
This is the first time (other than that moment 65 million years ago)
that so much has changed in so short a time. All computers transition
to a new state at the same time and some, the majority perhaps,
transition to an undefined state.
We can't fix this, there is no solution, time has run out.
Unfortunately, the press has run this story so much that every clueless
bombastic pontificater thinks they understand enterprise systems,
operating systems internals, and complex applications.
I've heard it all, "you're too close to the problem", "we're 'mer-kins",
"this is just hype.", and other droolings.
That's just clueless wishing. Whistling in the graveyard. This is one
problem that cannot be solved, something wicked, this way comes.
Listen, a wind is rising...
cory hamasaki 312 Days, 7,493 Hours,
kiyoinc.com
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